Inference to Best Explanation and Mutually Exclusive Hypotheses: A Bayesian Perspective

Presented by Tasha Fairfield, Professor at the Department of Political and Social Science at the European University Institute Abstract: The importance of inference to best explanation is gaining salience in political science across methodological orientations. Yet we seem to lack a shared understanding of what it means for two or more explanations to be considered “alternatives.” While any sensible definition implies mutual exclusivity, some scholars use language that suggests alternative explanations need not be mutually exclusive; others explicitly deny the necessity or desirability of exclusivity. This paper aims to identify the root causes of confusion about alternative explanations and mutual exclusivity and to clarify how and why we always can and always should compare mutually exc